Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 36.296156 39.570431 43.178797 47.484032 52.526347 58.303071 65.508488
2025-03-16 30.215597 34.205507 38.890942 44.901313 52.565228 62.249185 75.836081
2025-03-23 27.829982 32.364607 37.942900 45.506987 55.838193 70.042911 92.289757
2025-03-30 25.648632 30.389822 36.416335 44.925900 57.172282 75.190192 106.214370
2025-04-06 24.025617 28.904363 35.276052 44.588089 58.619676 80.590156 122.105317
2025-04-13 22.130538 26.879331 33.188165 42.614765 57.256620 81.180204 129.528201
2025-04-20 21.542420 26.533112 33.333066 43.838712 60.942003 90.868646 158.718688
2025-04-27 20.647310 25.688230 32.684255 43.764644 62.463708 97.017998 183.472074
2025-05-04 20.418615 25.741329 33.310507 45.707331 67.698943 111.690945 240.338232
2025-05-11 19.758261 25.129056 32.892740 45.903959 69.813565 120.529766 288.912472
2025-05-18 19.432430 24.972766 33.139134 47.211748 74.230378 136.081006 382.736559
2025-05-25 18.610155 24.037344 32.113707 46.225298 73.929171 139.955467 432.973014
2025-06-01 17.589667 22.877388 30.850469 45.053162 73.831696 146.594630 530.250785
2025-06-08 16.378703 21.384540 28.988176 42.680874 70.933115 144.904079 581.256460
2025-06-15 15.883472 20.938324 28.759317 43.238943 74.556757 164.714536 924.662835
2025-06-22 15.231396 20.207067 28.000869 42.703675 75.565266 177.005108 1368.778384
2025-06-29 14.681730 19.600474 27.399604 42.392341 77.049529 192.379834 2356.115999
2025-07-06 13.915775 18.615907 26.098155 40.571350 74.406635 189.967978 2848.496315
2025-07-13 13.710145 18.503566 26.267541 41.701283 79.652400 226.166594 19257.934974
2025-07-20 13.325995 18.084155 25.874943 41.632948 81.682130 250.153079 NaN
2025-07-27 13.249241 18.154217 26.340677 43.423418 89.581314 320.554087 NaN
2025-08-03 12.942759 17.831174 26.079397 43.604427 92.723347 368.289262 NaN
2025-08-10 12.793122 17.758670 26.265386 44.807350 99.627786 469.453844 NaN